Jeff Lenard:
We have a repeat guest on today, Andrew Gross, who is national public relations manager with AAA, who is making another appearance to talk about what’s going to happen with summer drive.

Andrew Gross:
It’s a pleasure to be here.

Jeff Lenard:
AAA just came out with its look at summer drive in terms of what’s going to happen over the Memorial Day weekend on the roads in the air. Can you give us a sense of what the big findings were in the AAA survey?

Andrew Gross:
We are looking at what is going to be the start of a very robust summer travel season. And Memorial Day is kind of the great kickoff. It’s like waving the start flag at a race and it’s really going to be true this year, which is kind of unique given how expensive everything is across the board. Whether it’s gas or rental cars or airfares, hotels, everything is more expensive and yet people want to travel. And that could be sort of a holdover COVID effect.

Chris Blasinsky:
Sure. People just want to get away, right? However they intent to do it.

Andrew Gross:
They want to get away, and we’re looking at numbers around 39.2 million people who are going to travel over Memorial Day and that’s close to pre-pandemic levels. Not quite, but we’re getting there. We think that these ravel numbers will likely continue throughout the summer.

Chris Blasinsky:
Is that across the board with road and air or is one heavier than the other?

Andrew Gross:
Yes, that’s that’s across the board. We measure a trip as you have to go 50 miles away. So if you’re just going around the corner to visit your aunt, that doesn’t count. Of the 39 million, 34 million-plus are going to go by car. And that’s a little bit of a dip. Usually car travel is around 90 to 92% and this is a dip to about 88%. So there are folks who have decided to pay those high airfares and maybe they haven’t gone anywhere for a couple of years and they’ve decided to roll the dice.

Jeff Lenard:
When we look at these numbers, the one thing I loved in the headline is the word Sizzlin’. It’s not just going to be robust travel, it’s gonna be Sizzlin’ this summer.

Andrew Gross:
That’s right. Sizzlin’ summer travel. That was actually my headline. I’m glad you pointed that out. I didn’t want to brag about it too much.

Chris Blasinsky:
I like the alliteration, Andrew.

Andrew Gross:
Thank you very much. But you’re right. People really want to get out and hit the road. I’m asked this question quite a bit. Why is it that we are still below pre-pandemic levels? If people have grown more confident and comfortable about traveling, amid COVID because COVID hasn’t gone anywhere, there could be a lot of reasons for why we’re not back at those levels. Cost could certainly be one of them because considering that everything is more expensive, plus we’ve also lost one million people. And for every person we lost, they had family, they had friends, they had loved ones. And if that person was the breadwinner, maybe they’re economically not at a place where they can go and they may not be emotionally at a place where they’re ready to travel yet. So that is something we have to look at too.

Jeff Lenard:
When you look at Memorial Day travel, is there a difference between Memorial Day and the rest of the summer or in previous years? Does whatever happens on Memorial Day portend for a strong or a weak summer of travel?

Andrew Gross:
We’ve never seen a strong Memorial Day and then a downer summer. Folks use Memorial Day, that sort of five day period as they’re at the starting gate. They will go away on a shorter trip on Memorial Day because you have a smaller window of time, but then maybe later on in the summer they’ll have the great big family vacation. But again, we’re in all these unchartered waters. You still have COVID and then you have all these high prices, so will travel change? We won’t know until this fall when look back to see whether our forecast accurate or did the numbers change. It’s going to be interesting to observe as we go.

Chris Blasinsky:
Within the survey, I was looking towards the end where it says the worst and best times to travel. And even though you put that out there, people are going to be on the road no matter what. They’re going to have to stop somewhere, which is why we love when AAA comes out with this survey because it kicks off the summer season for the convenience store industry. And they can use this data to gauge just how busy things are going to get. Jeff and I were playing around with what are some of the things that convenience stores can do to be ready for it.

Chris Blasinsky:
Because as you said, prices are super high all across the board, but there’s also a labor shortage. There’s supply chain issues. There’s a trucker shortage. There’s still a lot of headwinds facing everyone and yet people are going to be on the road visiting stores. So we were playing around with what are some of the top three things retailers can put in their minds right now to get ready for it. One of them being clean restrooms for sure. Jeff, what were some of the other ones that you threw out?

Jeff Lenard:
Probably clean bathrooms and clean bathrooms We joke about that but when somebody’s on a road trip, the reason that convenience stores are so popular to stop at is you’re looking for a place where you can get some food, beverages. You can get fuel and you can use restrooms. And usually when somebody stops, the family is going inside. The first thing they’re doing is they’re going to the bathroom. By the time somebody’s filling up, if the rest of the family’s coming out and says ‘let’s go,’ that means there was a problem with the bathroom. And that means there’s going to be no food sales. There’s not going to be beverage sales. We’ve all had those experiences where your shopping experience starts at the bathroom. The bathroom does not directly make you money, but it indirectly can drive the business over the summer months.

Andrew Gross:
The more you think about it, it sort of does set the whole tone for the entire experience. If you go in and the bathroom’s clean, you’re going to come out and feel much more positive about spending time and money to go around the rest of the store because you are like, well, if it’s clean in there, it’s going to be spotless out here too. I also think that in years past, no matter how high gas prices are, and we’ve never had gas prices this high, people have decided to travel but they budget in the cost of gas, and that will probably still continue. One way that they budget in the cost of gasoline is they may eat out less, but they still need to eat and they still need to stop. So perhaps they won’t go to a drive-thru or a sit-down restaurant, but they will need to stock up on snacks for the road trip. So it could be a very busy summer for convenience stores.

Chris Blasinsky:
That’s a good point because foodservice within our industry is strong and it’s a growing segment. The beauty of foodservice is that within the convenience store space, it taps into what you just said, Andrew. You don’t have to make multiple stops, especially if you’re trying to save on miles and gas and use the restroom. You can do it all in the convenience store space.

Jeff Lenard:
One of the tips in the AAA survey is best times to travel and worst times to travel. What are they?

Andrew Gross:
It’s always the afternoon drive time on the Thursday before a big holiday weekend, three in the afternoon. We tell people don’t be on the road then if you can avoid it. You will have a lot less company on the road with you.

Jeff Lenard:
I know that AAA is very focused on facts. Is there any sort of overview that you can provide to people looking at the gas price numbers and the diesel price numbers across the country?

Andrew Gross:
The prices are probably going to stay elevated through the summer. We know that the refineries are working at about 95% capacity right now, so they are trying to churn it out as quickly as possible. There is not really a supply issue. It’s a demand issue, and it’s also an oil cost issue and that’s where this war figures in. There’s less and less Russian oil getting into the market. Russia is either the number two or number three, depending on the day, oil producer in the entire world. The United States is number one, Saudi Arabia is around number three. Without that Russian oil coming into the market, which is how they fund their war machine, by cutting that off, then there is no longer that oil in the global oil market. And that’s why you’re seeing these prices that are staying stubbornly above $100, even $110 a barrel. Back in August, you were talking about $64 a barrel. And when you’re standing at the pump, remember oil accounts for about 60% of the cost of what you’re paying at the pump. So the higher, the cost of oil, the higher your pump price. The way this war is entering this grinding phase where it’s going to keep going and going, unless Russian oil is coming on the market, the price of oil is not going to be dropping any time soon.

Jeff Lenard:
Wrapping up things, AAA can also save you discounts because there’s plenty of opportunities to save on hotels and various ways of travel. Second thing is if you’re stuck in a traffic jam and you have a favorite podcast, maybe you can listen to that as long as you have positive memories of that traffic jam associated with that podcast.

Chris Blasinsky:
Thank you everyone for listening to today’s episode of Convenience Matters, and thank you, Andrew, for joining us and for anyone who’s looking for more information from AAA, where can we find you?

Andrew Gross:
There’s newsroom.aaa.com and for gas prices there’s gasprices.aaa.com updated every day at 3:00 AM. So you can know exactly what you’re about to pay wherever you’re going.

Jeff Lenard:
Perfect for insomniacs.

Chris Blasinsky:
I live and breathe by that website. I’ve probably checked it almost every day for the last 17 years. So thank you, Andrew. And thanks everyone again for listening, you can check us out at conveniencematters.com and you can subscribe to the podcast on your favorite podcast player.

Outro:
Convenience Matters is brought to you by NACS and produced in partnership with Human Factor. For more information, visit convenience.org.

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